The upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026 is expected to transcend its North American scope. While China won’t be present at the negotiating table, experts say it will be impossible to ignore its influence on the discussions.
Antonio Ortiz Mena, chairman of the USMCA Strategy Committee at Mexico’s Foreign Trade Council (Comce), highlighted that the talks won’t be limited to the three countries. “China won’t be at the table, but it will be at the center of the debate,” he said, adding that the U.S. has softened some of its trade measures toward China, given its relevance as a trading partner.
Key topics are expected to include capital origin, regional content rules, and potential restrictions regarding China’s indirect involvement under current rules of origin.
Sergio Contreras, president of Comce, noted that the process would amount to a full renegotiation rather than a simple review, especially for sensitive sectors requiring adjustments.
For Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former chief negotiator for the USMCA, the priority for the Mexican team will be to safeguard the free-trade foundation of the agreement and secure its extension for another 16 years to boost North American competitiveness. “A unified North America with a long-term trade framework is essential to remain competitive, especially against China,” he said.
However, Smith Ramos warned that it’s unlikely the process will move forward without the U.S. imposing tariffs on Mexico, as such measures are often used as leverage. He referenced a recent visit by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who acknowledged Mexico’s progress on migration and fentanyl control but did not address tariff issues tied to national security criteria.
Source: El Diario MX
