The upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) represents a pivotal moment for North America’s economic future. Former negotiators agree that Mexico should avoid a broad renegotiation and instead focus on a technical review that preserves legal certainty, regional integration, and investor confidence.
The timing coincides with preparations for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, jointly hosted by the three countries, which Mexican authorities see as an opportunity to highlight not only sporting cooperation but also the importance of economic agreements underpinning regional stability.
Experts caution that reopening all 34 chapters of the USMCA would carry substantial risks. Any modification would require new legislative approval in each country and could invite political pressures—particularly from the United States—that might disrupt the balance achieved in 2020. A full renegotiation could also revive previously rejected proposals, including tighter agricultural restrictions, stricter labor rules, transport limitations, or changes to dispute settlement and investment protections.
The prevailing recommendation is to fully exhaust the treaty’s review phase and consider a narrowly defined negotiation only if unavoidable, backed by a clear Mexican agenda that advances national interests. Former negotiators stress that the process should remain technical, focused on assessing what has worked and what needs adjustment, without weakening North America’s deeply integrated production networks.
Another key issue is the agreement’s duration. The USMCA mandates reviews every six years, a structure that can create prolonged uncertainty. Analysts argue that extending the treaty for an additional 16 years and eliminating the recurring review clause would provide stronger signals of stability to investors and exporters, especially amid global trade tensions, technological competition, and supply chain realignments.
Signals from the United States suggest that renegotiation remains a possibility, while disputes persist over energy policy, rules of origin, steel, aluminum, and agriculture. Analysts warn that excessive concessions in parallel trade disputes—such as tariffs imposed outside the USMCA framework—could weaken Mexico’s position ahead of the formal review.
According to an Oxford Economics analysis, four scenarios are possible, ranging from a relatively swift renegotiation, considered the baseline outcome, to a more adverse scenario involving the agreement’s collapse and long-term economic damage to Mexico and Canada. The most optimistic outcome, though least likely, would be an immediate extension of the treaty with near-zero tariffs among the partners.
Historical data underscore the agreement’s importance. Since the implementation of NAFTA and later the USMCA, regional trade has expanded dramatically, reshaping production structures across North America. Mexico, in particular, has seen a substantial increase in exports to both the United States and Canada, reinforcing its central role in the regional economy.
Economic authorities maintain that regional integration will continue to underpin growth, while acknowledging the need to strengthen domestic value-added, reduce external dependencies, and pursue a broader productive transformation. The outcome of the USMCA review will be critical in shaping Mexico’s economic certainty and growth prospects in the years ahead.
Source: Expansión
