The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) made a slight upward revision to its inflation forecast through the second quarter of 2025 but still expects inflation to return to its 3% target by the third quarter of 2026.
In an interview with journalist Enrique Quintana, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja said the projected impact of the higher excise tax (IEPS) on soft drinks and other products next fiscal year would be limited, according to the central bank’s estimates.
Rodríguez Ceja acknowledged that Banxico’s outlook differs from that of private analysts. While the central bank expects inflation to converge to its 3% goal in 2026, analysts forecast it will close at 3.81%, near the upper end of the 2%–4% variability range.
“One key difference between our projections and market forecasts is that ours include an endogenous response of monetary policy to inflation,” Rodríguez Ceja explained.
She added that Banxico’s projections are designed to incorporate the effects of interest rate adjustments on other macroeconomic variables to ensure convergence toward the inflation target.
Regarding the possibility of another rate cut, Rodríguez Ceja noted that the ex-ante real rate declined from 3.61% to 3.36%, placing it within the upper bound of the estimated neutral range, whose midpoint is around 2.7%.
Source: El Financiero
